Another prick

 The last time I wrote about covid was shortly after I'd had the first of two vaccine injections back in April. Subsequently, on 30th June, I had a second one. That was that, I was led to believe, no more covid worries, herd immunity, get on with your life and all that gumph. Well here we are in December and I'm waiting for a booster. It's booked for 7th January and I'm not feeling great about it.

When they were first talked about, it was my understanding that booster vaccines were for the elderly and the vulnerable but the government are now pushing a huge roll out to everybody. There've even been glimmers of discussion around mandatory vaccination which has already begun in other countries and which fills me with horror. The horror does not come from the vaccination itself, after all I've had two willingly and I'm signed up for a third, but from the possibility of the state mandating what I put in my own body. It infuriates me that the law tells me what I'm not allowed to put in my body but to be considering a situation where people are being forced to have a vaccination, sometimes against their will, is abhorrent to me.

The booster 'push' has been expedited because of a relatively new variant of the virus which started in southern Africa, called Omicron. This variant is potentially transmitted more easily that others, including the Delta variant, and that appears to be the driving force. Not being a virologist I thought I'd read a bit about this new variant to understand why there's so much fuss about it, so I Googled it and went to the World Health Organization's website. 

This is what I read: Transmissibility: It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible (e.g., more easily spread from person to person) compared to other variants, including Delta. The number of people testing positive has risen in areas of South Africa affected by this variant, but epidemiologic studies are underway to understand if it is because of Omicron or other factors.

Followed by: Severity of disease: It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta.  Preliminary data suggests that there are increasing rates of hospitalization in South Africa, but this may be due to increasing overall numbers of people becoming infected, rather than a result of specific infection with Omicron.  There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants.

And then: Effectiveness of vaccines: WHO is working with technical partners to understand the potential impact of this variant on our existing countermeasures, including vaccines. Vaccines remain critical to reducing severe disease and death, including against the dominant circulating variant, Delta. Current vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death.

Current vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death. 

So why, I ask myself, are we being told by the government that we should work from home again, and use a vaccine passport when going to a club, under what they are calling Plan B? And why are they drawing up Plan C to track people going to pubs and such? It makes no sense to me. Especially as it's unknown how severe this variant is. 

I've been vaccinated, practically everybody I know has been, and those that haven't have chosen that risk. Deaths of people with coronavirus — and I make a point of saying they are deaths of people with coronavirus, not from it — are down by 90% from the peak last winter (almost a year ago) and hospitalisation from the virus is rare amongst vaccinated people. So why the restrictions on liberties? And how many more times is this going to happen? 

The vaccination was the key to our freedoms and yet, despite the immense success of the programme, our freedoms are still being limited. Frustratingly they're being limited by a government that is repeatedly proving itself to be untrustworthy and lacking in integrity as bit by bit revelations of rule breaking and mid-lockdown parties leak out.

I had the job of cancelling our work Christmas party last week and it was a sorry affair because as I was doing that, thousands of others were doing the same thing around the country. I could almost hear the hospitality industry groaning in despair. These new restrictions and the fear that's being instilled in people will put companies out of business and people out of work, and yet I read time and again that the new variant is mild or, at worst, an unknown quantity. There are a lot of 'just in case' actions being taken and I don't like it. It smacks of politics. The government can't be seen to be the people that let folk die of covid (understandable) yet the longer term affects of missed diagnoses, delayed treatments by a health service prioritising covid boosters over many other appointments, or the surge in deaths from alcohol for example will, I suspect, be far further reaching.

* * *

Since I started writing this blog a couple of days ago the PM has announced a major push in booster vaccines. One million jabs a day to get everyone fixed by the new year. Now we see on the news people queuing for hours on end (two, three, four hours at a time), the NHS working at full tilt to accommodate it and lateral flow tests, which people are offered free of charge, have run out. This coincides with the first studies, coming out of South Africa, which conclude the risk of hospitalisation with the Omicron variant is significantly lower than with the Wuhan strain or the Delta strain.

It feels to me like the government has overreacted and caused panic; I've decided not to bring my booster vaccination date forward.

Of course, these could be the last words of an idiot. I might catch the new variant and be the second person to die of it. The country might crumble under the economic and social strains brought about by Omicron and this could quite simply be the beginning of the end. Let's hope not, eh?

Then there's the media commotion. These two articles are both on the home page of the Telegraph today. So what are we to believe — serious peril or no worse than flu? It also feels like there's a lot of contradiction which is confusing. No wonder the panic.  

 

It's all just so miserable, after nearly two years of this it feels like the end is continually being kicked down the road and that people have settled with this new state of affairs. Maybe that's why I'm finding it so difficult to accept the new restrictions and why it feels like another lockdown by stealth. I appear to be in the minority.

Covid comes home to roost - Tier 3 for Manchester, a positive test and a national survey.

Back in August I started writing about the situation surrounding Covid 19 and never finished. I wrote: 

The country has been creaking to life for over a month now but is still far from normal. Here in Manchester we've had new restrictions in place for a couple of weeks meaning two households aren't allowed to come together either at home or in a public building. Some venues are only just opening – theatres for example – but are doing so with all manner of precautions and restrictions in place.

We ate at a restaurant for the first time the week before last – Croma our regular haunt – which was nice but again a weird experience. The staff, many of which we know, were all in masks; we weren't supposed to be with someone who wasn't in our household so we said that our guest was a lodger; and tables had been removed. We'd been to a pub a couple of weeks before that.

And that's where I stopped. Interrupted and never to return. Until today... 

I'd have hoped that by now, in the second half of October, things would have improved but sadly not. We seem to have gone the other way.

A week ago the Government introduced a tier system for areas and regions in the UK whereby restrictions designed to slow the infection rate of the virus would be imposed dependent on its severity in that area. I've never heard the words 'Tier three' so many times before in my life since then.

This is a screenshot of today's (21 Oct) Manchester Evening News website with every mention of Tier three circled. See what I mean?

It's understandable, I suppose, when you appreciate that local representatives in Manchester have been negotiating (or fighting, depending on your viewpoint) with central government for a package to support the people that will be affected by the regulations when they are imposed and we move from our current position in tier two.

The new restrictions will mean that pubs cannot serve people drinks unless they are having a meal, this coupled with the ten o'clock curfew which has been in place across the country for a month (21 Sep), and the table service rules feels like another nail in the coffin for the industry in this area. There will inevitably be a knock on effect beyond the pubs and bars that simply have to close – taxis, cleaners and takeaways spring to mind, not to mention the supply chain. Additionally households are still not allowed to meet indoors and now in some outdoor settings too. Travel restrictions are also in place – though I don't think they are actual bans, more recommendations. 

It's become quite confusing for a lot of people, what they can and cannot do, and I can see how it's affecting people's state of mind too. With a full lockdown then three months of restrictions behind them, and now being told it's about to get worse for the foreseeable future, people are getting lockdown fatigue and stress levels are rising.

The way I see it is that the rise in infections has correlated with the return to the city of students, the opening up of schools, and the inevitable mixing that they have been doing. I understand the evidence of infections happening in pubs to be weak at best. 

I've been in a number of pubs over the last few weeks and in each you're expected to register yourself either with the government tracing app, or write down your information for them to hang on to in case there's an outbreak and they need to contact you. You must wear a mask when you're not sitting down – even to go to the loo. Ordering, on the whole is done via your mobile phone on apps and through websites. There are one way systems where feasible and there's sanitiser and warnings everywhere. 

Each and every place I've been to has been managed well and to the regulations. I struggle to see how closing these places down will make a significant difference to infection rates. If anything, the curfew has been more counterproductive as town and city centres across the nation are suddenly flooded with pissed people just before the clock strikes ten.

The wrangle between Manchester's Mayor, the Town Hall, and the leaders of the ten boroughs, and Central Government has been big news and my position on it has changed a number of times since it began. 

I'm not a fan of Andy Burnham, nor was I in favour of introducing city mayors when that happened a few years ago, that being said I was generally supportive of his response to Government saying that the city needs robust financial support to help the people that will be adversely affected by the new restrictions and who will only be entitled to two thirds of their salary, as opposed to eighty percent under the furlough scheme. I was in agreement more so when he suggested a scheme of protecting the vulnerable and allowing others to carry on in the current manner – something I would like to see across the country.

There have been moments when he's appeared to be showboating, he's also been accused of political grandstanding and using the situation for his own interests. I think his intentions are genuine but I can also see a grain of truth in these suggestions. Regardless, he is being hailed as a hero by many and we are now in a different place.

Yesterday the Government took the decision to end negotiations and impose the Tier three restrictions with a fraction of the financial support Burnham et al had requested. There has been a public backlash against this already and in an city not know for its favourable view of the Conservatives, I suspect this decision will ring in people's ears for a generation, much like decisions made by the Conservative government of the eighties did across the north. But time will tell.

Manchester is not the first area to have these restrictions in place, Liverpool was the first, then Lancashire and it now looks like Sheffield and South Yorkshire are doing the same with West Yorkshire and parts of the North East in line next. New Tier two restrictions have been introduced in London, Birmingham and parts of Essex.

To be clear though, whilst rates of infections have increased, deaths involving covid 19 are nowhere near the levels they were earlier in the year. This is down to a number of things including increased knowledge, improved treatment, more testing, and I dare say, the ages of people that are picking it up is currently lower and younger people are less likely to suffer badly from it.

That brings me onto a more personal note. My dad, who is seventy and currently in hospital, has been diagnosed with Covid 19. 

He fell at home on 5th October and after using his magic necklace to alert the emergency folk was taken to Blackpool Victoria hospital where he stayed till last Thursday. When he fell he fractured the very top of his arm, near his shoulder. The recovery situation is complicated by the fact that he uses a frame and with the fracture he can't grip it properly so can't walk. On Thursday he was moved to a place called The Arc which is a hospital where they work on getting him back to a state where he can leave and live independently. Apparently this could take five or six weeks.

At some point between Victoria and the Arc he's picked up a dose of the coronavirus. Currently he's asymptomatic and we're hopeful he'll stay that way but it's a bit scary. On the other hand, he doesn't seem at all bothered by it. He's being isolated for eight days which, as he's already in a room on his own, isn't much of a difference. He's probably seeing more people there than he did at home. So we'll keep phoning him – after all we're not allowed to visit – and see what happens.

Another new turn of events that's been brought on by the pandemic is Chris's work. He's taken on a temporary job which involves delivering and collecting covid tests and surveying people about their recent activities. It's part of a survey for the Office of National Statistics and whilst it's not the most challenging thing he's ever done it keeps the wolves from the door and him out of mischief for a few months.

So the world as we once knew it is still massively disrupted. I'd go as far to say that it feels more disrupted than during the full lockdown but, that being said, we still have friends, and work, and family and things to keep us entertained till the dust settles and we can all get back to some semblance of normality, which I expect will now be in the spring.